Development Roadmap
4-phase plan from MVP to global platform
Phase 1: MVP & Paper Money Launch
Timeline: Months 1-3
Goal: Validate product-market fit with free paper money predictions
Deliverables
- Web application (mobile-responsive)
- Single asset: SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
- Paper money accounts (unlimited, no KYC)
- Core prediction mechanics (above/below, 10-min settlements)
- Live price charts with countdown timer
- Basic leaderboards (daily/weekly/all-time)
- Kick bot integration (chat-based predictions)
- Discord bot (basic commands)
- X/Twitter bot (prediction tracking)
- Tutorial/onboarding flow
Technical Stack
| Component | Technology |
|---|---|
| Frontend | Next.js, React, TailwindCSS |
| Backend | Cloudflare Workers, D1 (edge SQL), Durable Objects |
| Hosting | Cloudflare Pages (frontend), Workers (serverless backend) |
| Database | PostgreSQL (Neon), Cloudflare D1 (edge cache) |
| Price Data | Polygon.io API (multi-source redundancy) |
| Bots | Cloudflare Workers, Discord.js, Twitter API v2 |
| Security & CDN | Cloudflare DDoS protection, WAF, global CDN |
Why Cloudflare?
Cloudflare actively supports gambling platforms (Entain, Playtech, SOFTSWISS) with:
- No gambling restrictions unlike Vercel/AWS
- $300/month infrastructure cost vs $2,000+ traditional hosting
- Global edge network for sub-50ms latency worldwide
- DDoS protection essential for high-stakes real-time predictions
- Compliance-friendly with gambling regulators (Curacao, UKGC, Malta)
Team Requirements
- 2 Fullstack Engineers: Web app development
- 1 Backend Engineer: Settlement engine, bot infrastructure
- 1 Designer: UI/UX, branding
- 1 Product Manager: Coordinate development
Success Metrics
- 50,000 paper money users by end of Month 3
- 10% daily active user rate (5,000 DAU)
- Average 20 predictions per user per day
- Viral coefficient > 1.2 (organic growth)
Budget: $400k
- Team salaries: $300k (3 months)
- Infrastructure: $20k
- Marketing (influencers): $50k
- Legal (entity setup): $30k
Phase 2: Real Money Beta Launch
Timeline: Months 4-6
Goal: Launch real money predictions with blockchain integration
Deliverables
- Curacao gambling license obtained
- KYC/AML integration (Jumio or Onfido)
- Blockchain integration (Polygon Layer 2)
- Smart contract development & audit
- Payment processing (Stripe for fiat, crypto wallets)
- Slot purchase system
- Withdrawal system (immediate/scheduled/batch)
- Real-time risk management dashboard
- Tax reporting (1099 generation)
- Responsible gaming tools (limits, self-exclusion)
- Customer support system
- Additional asset: BTC (crypto 24/7)
Geographic Launch
- Primary: Canada, Brazil
- Secondary: LATAM (Colombia, Argentina, Mexico)
- Block: US (state-by-state complexity), China, UAE
Team Expansion
- +2 Backend Engineers (blockchain, payments)
- +1 Security Engineer (smart contracts, audits)
- +1 Compliance Officer (licensing, KYC/AML)
- +2 Customer Support (24/7 coverage starts)
Success Metrics
- 5,000 paying users (10% conversion from paper)
- $500 average monthly revenue per user
- $2.5M monthly revenue run rate
- 95%+ settlement accuracy (no disputes)
- < 0.1% problem gaming flags
Budget: $1M
- Curacao license: $150k
- Smart contract audit: $100k
- Team salaries: $500k (3 months, expanded team)
- KYC/AML integration: $50k
- Infrastructure: $100k (hot/cold wallets, security)
- Marketing: $100k (user conversion campaigns)
Phase 2B: US Market Entry via FCM Partnership
Timeline: Months 7-12 (Parallel with Phase 3)
Goal: Launch legally in United States through CFTC-approved FCM partnership
🇺🇸 Following the Polymarket & Kalshi Playbook
The FCM Partnership Model: Instead of spending $112M to acquire a DCM (like Polymarket) or waiting 18-24 months for DCM approval (like Kalshi), we partner with existing DCMs as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM).
Proven Path: FanDuel, PrizePicks, and Robinhood all use this model.
Deliverables
- FCM Registration: Submit Form 7-R to CFTC/NFA
- Capital raise: Secure $1M minimum adjusted net capital
- Series 3 exams: Key personnel pass CFTC proficiency requirements
- Background checks: FBI fingerprinting for all principals
- DCM partnership: Sign agreement with Kalshi, Polymarket, or Crypto.com
- API integration: Build TheSixNines interface for DCM event contracts
- US-specific KYC/AML: Enhanced compliance for US users
- State rollout plan: Launch in CFTC-friendly states first (CO, NJ, MI, PA)
- Marketing campaign: US launch announcement, influencer partnerships
Partnership Options
| DCM Partner | Benefits | Contracts Available |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi |
• 2,000+ pre-approved contracts • Proven track record (since 2020) • Sports, elections, economics, weather • Robinhood already partners with them |
Sports, Politics, Economics, Finance, Weather, Entertainment |
| Polymarket |
• Crypto-native user base • Blockchain integration • Just regained US access (Sept 2025) • Strong brand recognition |
Politics, Crypto, Sports, Current Events |
| Crypto.com |
• DCM acquired in 2022 (NADEX) • Crypto payment infrastructure • International user base • Lower competition for partnership |
Binary Options, Event Contracts |
Phase Timeline
Month 7: Legal Groundwork
- Hire CFTC-specialized law firm (e.g., Willkie Farr & Gallagher)
- Begin FCM application preparation
- Initiate discussions with Kalshi/Polymarket
- Start capital raise for $1M requirement
Month 8-9: Registration & Training
- Submit Form 7-R (FCM application)
- Submit Form 8-R for all principals
- Key personnel study for Series 3 exam
- Complete FBI background checks
- Sign partnership agreement with DCM
Month 10-11: Integration & Testing
- Receive FCM approval from CFTC/NFA
- Integrate DCM API into TheSixNines platform
- Build US-specific compliance infrastructure
- Beta test with 100 US users
- Finalize state-by-state rollout plan
Month 12: US Launch
- Public launch in Phase 1 states (CO, NJ, MI, PA, IN)
- Press release: "TheSixNines brings CFTC-regulated prediction markets to US"
- Influencer partnerships (finance, sports, crypto)
- First 1,000 US user milestone
Budget: $500k
| Expense Category | Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum Capital Requirement | $1,000,000 | Must maintain at all times (not an expense, capital reserve) |
| Legal & Compliance | $200,000 | Law firm, application prep, ongoing advice |
| Registration Fees | $5,000 | Form 7-R ($500), Form 8-R ($85/person), exams ($130/person) |
| DCM Partnership Fee | $100,000 | One-time integration + revenue share TBD |
| API Integration | $75,000 | Engineering time, testing |
| US Marketing Campaign | $100,000 | Launch PR, influencers, paid ads |
| Compliance Infrastructure | $20,000 | Enhanced KYC/AML, geo-blocking, reporting |
| Total Phase Cost | $500,000 | + $1M capital reserve (returned if we exit FCM) |
Success Metrics
- 10,000 US users by Month 12
- $400 average revenue per US user (higher than international)
- $4M monthly US revenue run rate
- Expand to 15+ states by end of Year 2
- Zero CFTC compliance violations
Why This Is Game-Changing
Market Opportunity: US prediction market is estimated at $5B+ annually (Kalshi processed $500M in March Madness 2025 alone)
Competitive Advantage: We get CFTC approval without the $112M price tag Polymarket paid
Revenue Impact: US users spend 2-3x more than international users (higher disposable income)
Investor Appeal: Legal US presence dramatically increases valuation multiples
Risk Mitigation
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| FCM registration rejected | High | Hire experienced CFTC lawyers, ensure all principals pass background checks, maintain clean compliance record internationally |
| State-level legal challenges | Medium | Launch only in CFTC-friendly states, partner with DCM for legal defense, geo-block hostile states |
| DCM partnership falls through | Medium | Pursue multiple partnerships simultaneously (Kalshi AND Polymarket), flexible deal terms |
| Capital requirement burden | Low | $1M is recoverable if we exit FCM, plan for this in Series A fundraise |
Phase 3: Scale & Mobile Launch
Timeline: Months 13-18 (formerly 7-12)
Goal: Scale to 50,000 paying users globally, launch mobile apps
Deliverables
- iOS app (App Store)
- Android app (Google Play)
- Push notifications system
- 10+ stock assets (TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, QQQ, etc.)
- 4 crypto assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, MATIC)
- Parlay creator (3-6 leg combinations)
- News & alerts integration (Bloomberg, Reuters APIs)
- Personal analytics dashboard
- Copy trading feature
- VIP subscription tiers (Silver/Gold/Platinum)
- Tournament mode
- Discord real money predictions
Geographic Expansion
- UK (obtain UKGC compliance)
- EU (Malta, Estonia, Sweden)
- Australia (crypto gray area entry)
Team Expansion
- +2 Mobile Engineers (iOS, Android)
- +2 Backend Engineers (scale infrastructure)
- +1 Data Engineer (analytics, ML)
- +5 Customer Support (global coverage)
- +1 Community Manager (Discord/social)
- +1 Marketing Lead
Success Metrics
- 50,000 paying users
- $750 average monthly revenue per user
- $37.5M monthly revenue run rate
- 60% mobile app adoption
- 80% monthly user retention
- LTV:CAC ratio > 10:1
Budget: $3M
- Team salaries: $1.8M (6 months, 25 people)
- Mobile app development: $400k
- Infrastructure scaling: $300k
- Marketing: $400k (global expansion)
- Additional licensing (UK, EU): $100k
Phase 4: Global Domination
Timeline: Months 19-36 (Year 2-3)
Goal: 500k+ users, $7B+ annual revenue
Deliverables
- 100+ assets (stocks, crypto, commodities, forex)
- Multi-language support (10+ languages)
- Regional stock markets (FTSE, DAX, Nikkei, etc.)
- White-label licensing to partners
- API marketplace (3rd party developers)
- NFT integration (commemorative wins)
- DAO governance (community voting)
- Advanced AI features (predictions, risk analysis)
- Institutional accounts (hedge funds, prop traders)
Geographic Complete
- All of LATAM (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, Chile)
- All of EU (expand beyond Malta/Estonia to France, Germany, Spain)
- Asia (Japan, South Korea, Singapore if legally viable)
- Africa (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya)
- US Expansion: From initial 5 states (Phase 2B) to all 50 states where legally possible
Team at Scale
- 100+ employees
- Engineering: 40
- Customer Support: 30
- Compliance/Legal: 10
- Marketing: 10
- Operations: 10
Success Metrics
- 500,000 paying users (Year 2)
- 1,000,000 paying users (Year 3)
- $1,200 average monthly revenue per user
- $7.2B annual revenue (Year 2)
- $18B annual revenue (Year 3)
- Market leader in crypto-based predictions
Potential Exit Scenarios
- IPO: Year 3-4 at $30B+ valuation
- Acquisition: DraftKings, Flutter, Coinbase
- Stay Private: Cash cow, distribute profits
Risk Mitigation
Technical Risks
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Settlement timing failure | Critical | Redundant price feeds, automated failover, 99.99% SLA |
| Smart contract exploit | Critical | 3rd party audit, bug bounty, gradual rollout |
| Scaling issues | High | Load testing, horizontal scaling, CDN |
| Data provider outage | High | 3+ redundant sources, consensus mechanism |
Regulatory Risks
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| License revocation | Critical | Over-comply, multi-jurisdiction licensing |
| Crypto regulation changes | High | Maintain fiat option, stay informed, lobbying |
| Gambling law changes | High | Geographic diversification, legal counsel |
| KYC/AML enforcement | Medium | Best-in-class compliance from day 1 |
Market Risks
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor launches similar | High | First-mover advantage, network effects, brand (.69) |
| Crypto winter kills adoption | Medium | Fiat option, stock markets (always active) |
| User acquisition costs spike | Medium | Viral growth, referrals, organic social |
| Retention lower than projected | Medium | Gamification, social features, VIP tiers |
Funding Requirements
Seed Round: $2M (Current)
Use of Funds:
- Phase 1 MVP: $400k
- Phase 2 Real Money: $1M
- Phase 3 (partial): $600k
Goal: Reach 5,000 paying users, $2.5M MRR
Valuation: $10M pre-money
Series A: $15M (Month 9)
Use of Funds:
- Complete Phase 3 Scale: $2.4M
- Marketing expansion: $5M
- Team growth: $5M
- Geographic expansion: $2.6M
Goal: Reach 50,000 paying users, $37.5M MRR
Valuation: $150M pre-money
Series B: $100M (Year 2)
Use of Funds:
- Phase 4 global expansion: $40M
- Marketing blitz: $30M
- M&A (acquire competitors): $20M
- War chest: $10M
Goal: Reach 500,000 paying users, $600M MRR
Valuation: $3B pre-money
Why This Timeline Works
Validate First
Phase 1 proves product-market fit with zero regulatory risk
Paper money = fast iteration
Strategic Licensing
Curacao covers 150+ countries
Add specific licenses as we scale
Don't wait for all licenses to launch
Mobile Matters
Phase 3 mobile apps = 2x growth
But web-first in Phase 1 is faster
Right sequencing
Compound Growth
Each phase builds on last
Network effects accelerate
By Year 3, unstoppable