Revenue Model
Interactive exploration of 7 diverse revenue streams
Our Honest House Edge vs Competitors
| Platform Type | House Edge | Avg User Loss/Month | Transparency |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheSixNines | 3-5% | $47 | ✅ Fully disclosed upfront |
| Sportsbooks | 10-20% | $180 | ❌ Hidden in odds |
| Slot machines | 5-15% | $200 | ❌ Never disclosed |
| Binary options | 15-30% | $400+ | ❌ Intentionally obscured |
Our advantage: Lower edge + full transparency = sustainable, trusted business model.
7 Revenue Streams
Click any card to explore the detailed math and mechanics
Revenue Distribution
Prediction Platform Edge 60%
3-5% on individual predictions
How It Works
Users wager $100 on a 50/50 proposition (ABOVE vs. BELOW). Fair odds would be 2:1, but we offer 2.19:1 ($219.69 payout).
The Math
At 49% user win rate (realistic):
- 100 predictions × $100 = $10,000 wagered
- Wins 49 predictions: Returns $10,764.81
- Loses 51 predictions: Loses $5,100
- Net: User loses $335.19
- Effective house edge: 3.35%
Why It Works
- Not truly 50/50: User win rate averages 48-49% (human bias)
- Timing advantage: We settle at exact :X9 moments
- Emotional prediction: Chasing losses leads to larger entries
Contribution: This is our primary revenue source, accounting for 60% of total revenue.
Parlay House Edge 20%
28-37% edge on multi-leg parlays
Why Parlays Are Profitable
Users love the "lottery ticket" potential but dramatically overestimate their chances.
Parlay Math Breakdown
| Legs | Win Prob | Fair Odds | Our Odds | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-leg | 12.5% | 7:1 | 5.069:1 | 28% |
| 4-leg | 6.25% | 15:1 | 10.069:1 | 33% |
| 5-leg | 3.125% | 31:1 | 20.069:1 | 35% |
| 6-leg | 1.56% | 63:1 | 41.069:1 | 37% |
6-Leg Parlay Example:
1,000 users each wager $10:
- Total wagered: $10,000
- Expected winners: 16 users (1.56%)
- Payouts: 16 × $420.69 = $6,731
- House profit: $3,269 (32.7%)
Contribution: 20% of total revenue. High margin product that users love for the thrill.
Slot Subscriptions 8%
Monthly tier-based capacity model
The 10x Rule: Simple Tier Structure
Each slot tier defines both monthly cost and wager limits using a simple formula: Slot price × 10 = max wager
Pricing Tiers
| Tier | Monthly Cost | Wager Range | Target User |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | $5 | $5-$50 | Casual players |
| Standard | $10 | $10-$100 | Regular players |
| Premium | $25 | $25-$250 | Serious players |
| Elite | $50 | $50-$500 | High rollers |
User Distribution (5,000 Real Money Users)
| Tier | % of Users | Users | Avg Slots/User | Monthly Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 50% | 2,500 | 2 | $25,000 |
| Standard | 30% | 1,500 | 3 | $45,000 |
| Premium | 15% | 750 | 2 | $37,500 |
| Elite | 5% | 250 | 3 | $37,500 |
| Total Monthly Slot Revenue | $145,000 | |||
Why This Model Works
- Natural progression: Users start Starter, upgrade as they gain confidence
- Simple pricing: Easy mental math (10x rule) = better conversion
- Predictable MRR: Monthly subscriptions = stable recurring revenue
- Flexible scaling: Buy multiple slots at any tier (most buy 2-3)
- Aligns with limits: Max wagers align perfectly with daily win caps (see Ethics)
Annual Slot Revenue: $145k/month × 12 = $1.74M/year
Lifetime Value Boost: 15% of users upgrade tiers within 3 months (+$260k/year)
Contribution: 8% of revenue. High-margin recurring income with natural upgrade path.
Withdrawal Fees 5%
2-3% immediate, FREE scheduled
Tiered Withdrawal System
| Method | Time | Fee | User Adoption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immediate | <1 hour | 2-3% | 40% |
| Scheduled | 48 hours | FREE | 50% |
| Monthly Batch | End of month | FREE | 10% |
Revenue Calculation (10,000 users, $2M monthly withdrawals)
- Immediate (40%): $800k × 2.5% = $20k/month
- Scheduled (50%): $1M × 0% = $0
- Monthly (10%): $200k × 0% = $0
Hidden Value: Balance Retention
Even "free" withdrawals create revenue:
- Scheduled withdrawals keep $1M+ on platform for extra 48 hours
- During wait time, 30% of users place additional predictions
- $360k in additional predictions × 5% house edge = $18k/month
- Total withdrawal strategy value: $38k/month ($456k annually)
Contribution: 5% of revenue, with bonus retention effects.
VIP Subscriptions 3%
$9.99 - $99.99/month tiers
Three Tier System
Silver
- Immediate withdrawals: 1% fee (vs 2-3%)
- Scheduled withdrawals: FREE
- Priority support
- Special badge
Target: 10% of active users
Gold
- All withdrawals: FREE
- Better odds: 2.24:1 vs 2.19:1
- Free modifications
- Gold badge
- Dedicated support
Target: 3% of active users
Platinum
- All Gold benefits
- Best odds: 2.29:1
- Account manager
- Exclusive tournaments
- Early access to new features
Target: 0.5% of active users
Subscription Revenue (10,000 Users)
- Silver (10%): 1,000 × $9.99 = $9,990/mo
- Gold (3%): 300 × $29.99 = $8,997/mo
- Platinum (0.5%): 50 × $99.99 = $4,999/mo
- Total: $24k/month ($288k annually)
Contribution: 3% of revenue. Recurring, predictable income.
Modification Fees 2%
$0.420 per change after safe zone
Safe Zone System
Users can modify predictions for free within 5 minutes of settlement. After that, it's $0.420 per change.
Usage Patterns
- Average user makes 2-3 modifications per week outside safe zone
- 10,000 users × 2.5 mods/week × 4.3 weeks = 107,500 mods/month
- 107,500 × $0.420 = $45k/month ($540k annually)
Why Users Pay
- Locked in early, but market conditions changed (news, price movement)
- Emotional prediction (panic, FOMO)
- "It's only 42 cents" psychology
- Chasing losses with strategy changes
Smart Design: The $0.420 price point reinforces our .69 brand while being low enough that users don't hesitate.
Contribution: 2% of revenue. Small fee, high volume.
Deposit Fees 2%
2-3% card, 1% crypto, $1 ACH
Payment Processing Costs Passed to Users
| Deposit Method | Fee | Usage |
|---|---|---|
| Credit/Debit Card | 2-3% | 60% |
| Crypto (USDC/USDT) | 1% | 30% |
| ACH/Bank Transfer | $1 flat | 10% |
Monthly Deposits (10,000 Users, $500 avg deposit)
- Credit card (60%): $3M × 2.5% = $75k
- Crypto (30%): $1.5M × 1% = $15k
- ACH (10%): 1,000 users × $1 = $1k
- Total: $91k/month ($1.09M annually)
Strategy
We incentivize crypto deposits (lowest fee) through:
- Faster processing times
- Lower fees
- Bonus crypto education for new users
Contribution: 2% of revenue. Mostly covers payment processing costs.
Live Revenue Calculator
Adjust the inputs below to see real-time revenue projections
Input Parameters
Parlay Calculator
See how parlay math works with different entry sizes and leg counts
Unit Economics Breakdown
Revenue per user by type and activity level
Monthly Revenue Breakdown
Casual User
Profile: Predicts occasionally for fun
- ~1,200 predictions/month ($5 avg)
- Mostly individual predictions
- No VIP subscription
- Low modification rate
Monthly Revenue: ~$280
Active User
Profile: Regular player, treats it seriously
- ~6,000 predictions/month ($10 avg)
- Mix of individual and parlays
- Silver/Gold VIP subscriber
- Moderate modifications
Monthly Revenue: ~$1,200
Whale
Profile: High-volume power user
- ~30,000 predictions/month ($20 avg)
- Heavy parlay usage
- Platinum VIP subscriber
- Frequent modifications
Monthly Revenue: ~$5,500
Business Expenses & Unit Economics
Transparent breakdown of costs to operate TheSixNines at scale
🏆 Employee-Owned, Never Going Public
Our commitment: TheSixNines will NEVER go public. This company will always be owned by the employees who build it.
- Remote-first: No expensive headquarters. Work from anywhere.
- Profit-sharing: Employees own equity and share in success
- Best-in-class perks: We can afford to treat our team incredibly well
- Sustainable growth: No VC pressure, no exit timeline, no BS
Leadership Structure: Curacao Presence Options
The Curacao eGaming license requires operational presence. Here are three strategic approaches:
Option A: Remote CEO + Compliance Director
Structure: CEO stays remote, hire full-time Curacao-based Compliance Director (16 total employees)
Year 1 Costs
- Compliance Director salary: $100,000
- Housing allowance: $24,000/year
- Work permit/visa: $3,000
- Relocation package: $15,000
- Year 1 Total: $142,000
- Ongoing: $124,000/year
✅ Pros
- CEO focuses on product/growth
- Full-time regulatory expert on ground
- Local knows Curacao system better
- Lower cost
- CEO visits 4x/year ($5k travel)
❌ Cons
- CEO not directly building relationships
- Potential communication delays
Total Team Cost: $3,369,200 (+$142k from base)
EBITDA Impact: 82.8% (vs 83.0% base)
Option B: CEO Relocates to Curacao
Structure: CEO moves to Curacao full-time, handles compliance directly (15 total employees)
Year 1 Costs
- Base salary: $180,000 (same)
- Executive housing: $48,000/year
- Relocation package: $35,000
- Work permit/residency: $3,000
- Cost of living: $12,000/year
- Car + driver: $18,000/year
- Premium services: $6,000/year
- Year 1 Total: $302,000
- Ongoing: $264,000/year
- Premium: +$84,000/year
✅ Pros
- Direct regulatory relationships
- Faster approvals/decisions
- Immersed in gaming hub ecosystem
- Shows commitment to jurisdiction
- Immediate issue resolution
- Network building opportunity
❌ Cons
- $84k/year premium cost
- Separated from US tech team
- Time zone challenges
Total Team Cost: $3,311,200 (+$84k from base)
EBITDA Impact: 82.9% (vs 83.0% base)
Option C: Hybrid (CEO Year 1, Then Director)
Structure: CEO in Curacao Year 1 to establish, hire Director Year 2+
Phased Costs
- Year 1: CEO in Curacao = $302,000
- Year 2+: CEO remote ($180k) + Director ($124k) = $304,000/year
✅ Pros
- Maximum regulatory speed Year 1
- CEO establishes relationships
- Director maintains them Year 2+
- Best of both worlds
- CEO returns to product focus
❌ Cons
- Highest Year 1 cost
- Transition complexity Year 2
- Director must maintain CEO's relationships
Year 1 Team Cost: $3,311,200
Year 2+ Team Cost: $3,351,200
Best for: Regulatory speed Year 1, sustainability after
Option D: Founder CEO in Curacao 🏆
Structure: Founder takes $50k salary, company pays relocation + living for 2 people
Year 1 Costs
- Base salary: $50,000 (founder rate)
- Executive 2BR housing: $48,000/year
- Relocation (couple): $40,000
- Work permits (2 people): $6,000
- Living expenses: $15,000/year
- Car lease/insurance: $12,000/year
- Utilities/services: $3,000/year
- US travel (quarterly): $8,000/year
- Year 1 Total: $182,000
- Ongoing: $136,000/year
Post-Profitability
- Performance bonuses replace salary
- Tied to EBITDA/revenue milestones
- Potential: $100k-$500k+ annually
- Aligns incentives with growth
✅ Pros
- Lowest cost: $136k/year
- Direct regulatory relationships
- Founder commitment signal
- Comfortable living for 2 people
- Performance-based upside
- Maximum regulatory speed
- Best cash burn efficiency
❌ Cons
- Low fixed salary (mitigated by bonuses)
- Requires founder commitment
Total Team Cost: $3,201,200
EBITDA Impact: 83.3% (BEST margin)
Savings vs Option B: $120k Year 1, $128k/year ongoing
💡 RECOMMENDED: Best of all worlds—Curacao presence, lowest cost, aligned incentives
Cost Comparison
| Option | Year 1 Cost | Ongoing Cost | Team Size | Regulatory Speed | EBITDA Margin | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Remote + Director | $142,000 | $124,000/year | 16 people | Fast | 82.8% | Delegation |
| B: CEO in Curacao | $122,000* | $84,000/year* | 15 people | Fastest | 82.9% | Direct control |
| C: Hybrid | $122,000* | $124,000/year** | 15 → 16 | Fastest → Fast | 82.9% → 82.8% | Speed then scale |
| D: Founder CEO 🏆 | $2,000*** | -$44,000/year*** | 15 people | Fastest | 83.3% | Optimal |
* Additional cost vs base plan (CEO already budgeted at $180k)
** Year 2+ adds Compliance Director
*** SAVINGS vs base plan ($180k CEO salary → $50k + living expenses). Negative = cost reduction!
Why Option D (Founder CEO) is Optimal
- Total savings: $130k/year in fixed costs vs standard CEO
- Better than Option A: Same regulatory speed, $12k/year cheaper (ongoing)
- Better than Option B: Same presence, $128k/year cheaper
- Founder signal: Shows commitment to investors and regulators
- Aligned incentives: Bonuses tied to profitability = skin in the game
- Comfortable living: All expenses covered for 2 people, executive housing, car, travel
- Post-profitability upside: $100k-$500k+ bonuses when company succeeds
Result: You're in Curacao building regulatory relationships, living comfortably, for LESS than hiring a remote Compliance Director, while improving EBITDA margin to 83.3%.
Curacao Cost of Living & Tax Context
Housing & Living
- Executive housing: $3,000-$5,000/month
- Mid-range apartment: $1,500-$2,500/month
- Utilities: ~$200/month
- Overall cost: 42% cheaper than US
- Work permit: ~$3,000 (process takes 3 months)
- Digital nomad visa: $294 for 6 months
Tax Rates (2025)
- Corporate tax: 15% (up to $500k profit), 22% (above)
- E-zone companies: 2% profit tax (special regime)
- Personal income tax: 9.75% - 46.5% (progressive)
- VAT: 6% standard rate
- Dividend withholding: 0% (qualifying)
- Pillar 2 minimum: 15% (effective Jan 2025)
Why Curacao Presence Matters for Regulatory Speed
- License approval: 6-12 months with direct relationships vs 12-18 months remote
- Amendments/renewals: Face-to-face meetings = weeks vs months of email exchanges
- Audits/inspections: On-site handling prevents delays and demonstrates compliance
- Gaming ecosystem: Curacao is THE Caribbean gaming hub—network effects are real
- Trust factor: Physical presence shows long-term commitment to regulators
Bottom line: The $84-142k investment can save 6+ months in time-to-market, worth millions in lost revenue.
Team Size Strategy: Lean Launch vs Full Team
Modern AI tools + outsourcing = you don't need 15 people to launch. Start lean, scale as revenue grows.
🚀 Lean Launch Team (6 people)
Strategy: Launch with core team, outsource non-critical, scale with revenue
Core Team
| Role | Count | Compensation |
|---|---|---|
| Founder CEO (Curacao) | 1 | $182k (Year 1 w/ relocation) |
| CTO/Lead Engineer | 1 | $200k |
| Senior Full-stack Engineer | 1 | $160k |
| DevOps Engineer | 1 | $140k |
| Compliance Officer (remote) | 1 | $120k |
| Contract Designer (PT) | 1 | $60k |
Outsourced/Deferred
- Customer Support: Contractors ($30k vs $80k FT)
- Marketing: Founder handles early growth
- Product Management: CTO wears this hat
- Additional engineers: Hire at 2,000+ users
Total Cost (Year 1)
- Base salaries: $862k
- Perks & benefits (6 people): $420k
- Outsourced support: $30k
- Total: $1,312,000
💡 RECOMMENDED for Launch: Save $1.9M, achieve 90.6% EBITDA margin, scale team with revenue
📈 Full Team (15 people)
Strategy: Build complete team upfront for maximum velocity
Complete Team Structure
- Founder CEO (Curacao): $182k
- 2 C-level (CTO, COO): $360k
- 4 Senior Engineers: $640k
- 3 Engineers: $390k
- Product Designer (FT): $120k
- Product Manager: $140k
- Compliance Officer: $150k
- Customer Support Lead: $80k
- Marketing/Growth: $110k
Total Cost (Year 1)
- Base salaries: $2,172k
- Perks & benefits (15 people): $1,057k
- Total: $3,229,000
Best for: Well-funded, need maximum feature velocity, competing against established players
Team Size Impact on Year 1 Financials
| Metric | Lean Team (6) | Full Team (15) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Cost | $1,312,000 | $3,229,000 | $1,917,000 savings |
| Total Expenses | $3,171,000 | $5,088,000 | $1,917,000 savings |
| Revenue (same) | $30,000,000 | $30,000,000 | — |
| EBITDA | $26,829,000 | $24,912,000 | $1,917,000 higher |
| EBITDA Margin | 89.4% | 83.0% | +6.4 points |
Smart Hiring Roadmap: Scale Team with Revenue
| Milestone | Team Size | New Hires | Annual Team Cost | Revenue (Est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch → 1,000 users | 6 people | — | $1,312,000 | $6M |
| 1,000 → 2,500 users | 8 people | +1 Engineer, +1 FT Support | $1,742,000 | $15M |
| 2,500 → 5,000 users | 12 people | +1 PM, +1 Marketing, +2 Engineers | $2,582,000 | $30M |
| 5,000 → 10,000 users | 15 people | +1 COO, +2 Engineers | $3,229,000 | $60M |
Key insight: Start with 6 people at $6M revenue (21.9% team cost), scale to 15 people at $60M revenue (5.4% team cost). Team costs decrease as % of revenue while headcount grows.
Why Lean Launch Works in 2025
- AI-powered development: Tools like Cursor, GitHub Copilot = 2x developer productivity
- Modern infrastructure: AWS, Vercel, Cloudflare = no dedicated DevOps army needed
- Outsourcing quality: Zendesk + contractors = professional support at 1/3 cost
- Founder advantage: You can handle marketing, sales, partnerships initially
- Investor preference: 65% of VCs now favor "team excellence" over scale (a16z 2024 survey)
- Smart hiring: 6 exceptional people > 15 average people
- Capital efficiency: $1.9M savings = 6+ months extra runway
Year 1 Expense Breakdown (Lean Launch Team, 6 People)
All expenses below reflect the Lean Launch Team approach — 6 people to start, scale with revenue.
Legal & Regulatory Compliance
Curacao eGaming license, legal counsel, audits
Curacao eGaming License (Primary Jurisdiction)
| Cost Item | Frequency | Amount (USD) | Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial application fee | One-time (Year 1) | $5,000 | $5,000 |
| Annual regulatory fee | Annual | $26,800 | $26,800 |
| Monthly license fee | Monthly | $2,240/mo | $26,880 |
| Domain fees (5 domains) | Annual | $284/domain | $1,420 |
| Due diligence (5 founders/execs) | One-time | $200/person | $1,000 |
Total Curacao License (Year 1): $61,100
Additional Legal & Compliance
- Legal counsel (retainer): $10,000/month = $120,000/year
- Annual audit (financial): $25,000
- KYC/AML compliance software: $3,000/month = $36,000/year
- Payment processor compliance: $15,000/year
- Tax preparation & filing: $20,000/year
Regulatory Relations & Advisory
Context: Curacao gaming licensing requires sophisticated local expertise and government relations support. These costs reflect engagement of local counsel and consultants with established regulatory relationships to ensure smooth licensing process and ongoing compliance.
- Regulatory consulting & advisory: $100,000/year
Local experts with deep regulatory knowledge and government relationships - Expedited processing & facilitation: $50,000/year
Fast-track application services and expedited administrative processing - Government relations & compliance liaison: $75,000/year
Ongoing relationship management with regulatory authorities - Regulatory contingency fund (15%): $60,000/year
Buffer for unexpected compliance requirements and regulatory changes
Total Legal & Compliance (Year 1): $562,100
Infrastructure & Technology
Cloud hosting, data feeds, development tools
Core Infrastructure
| Service | Provider | Monthly Cost | Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud hosting (AWS/GCP) | AWS | $8,000 | $96,000 |
| Real-time price feeds | Polygon.io + Coinbase | $2,500 | $30,000 |
| Database (managed Postgres) | AWS RDS | $1,200 | $14,400 |
| CDN & edge network | Cloudflare | $500 | $6,000 |
| Blockchain infrastructure | Alchemy/Infura | $800 | $9,600 |
| Email service | SendGrid | $300 | $3,600 |
| SMS/2FA service | Twilio | $400 | $4,800 |
| Monitoring & logging | Datadog | $600 | $7,200 |
| Backup & disaster recovery | AWS S3 | $400 | $4,800 |
Development Tools & Software
- GitHub Enterprise: $300/month = $3,600/year
- Figma (design): $150/month = $1,800/year
- Notion (documentation): $100/month = $1,200/year
- Slack Enterprise: $400/month = $4,800/year
- Linear (project management): $200/month = $2,400/year
- Analytics platform: $500/month = $6,000/year
Total Infrastructure (Year 1): $196,200
Payment Processing
Crypto, card processors, withdrawal costs
Note: Most processing fees are passed to users (see Deposit/Withdrawal revenue streams), but we still have some platform costs.
Processing Costs We Absorb
- Crypto gas fees (platform transactions): $15,000/year
- Merchant account setup fees: $5,000 one-time
- Chargeback handling: $10,000/year
- ACH returns/failures: $3,000/year
- Payment gateway integration (Stripe Connect): $2,000/year
Total Payment Processing (Year 1): $35,000
Operations & Workspace
Curacao presence, remote work support
Physical Presence (Curacao) — Local-First Strategy
🏪 Philosophy: Support Local Small Businesses
Strategy: Hire local Curacao residents and small businesses over chains whenever possible.
Why this matters:
- Regulatory advantage: Local businesses have established government relationships
- Community goodwill: Investing in local economy builds trust with regulators
- Cost effective: Often 20-40% cheaper than multinational chains
- Better service: Small businesses are more flexible and accommodating
- Cultural understanding: Locals navigate bureaucracy better than outsiders
- Long-term relationships: Supporting locals = they support you when you need it
Requirement: Gaming license requires registered office in Curacao, but NOT a full headquarters.
- Coworking membership (local provider): $450/month × 2 seats = $10,800/year
Using coWorld (local Curacao business) instead of WeWork - Registered office (local real estate): $3,000/year
Local property management company, not international chain - Local administrative support: $24,000/year
Part-time Curacao resident with government connections - Local legal counsel (Curacao firm): $75,000/year
Already budgeted in regulatory consulting; local firm with CGA relationships
Remote Operations
- Insurance (E&O, cyber liability): $35,000/year
- Accounting software (QuickBooks): $600/year
- HR platform (Rippling): $150/month = $1,800/year
- Corporate filings & compliance: $5,000/year
Total Operations (Year 1): $80,200
Team Compensation & Perks (15 employees)
Competitive salaries + best-in-class benefits
Year 1 Team Structure (Option D: Founder CEO)
| Role | Count | Avg Salary | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founder CEO (Curacao) | 1 | $50,000 | $50,000 |
| Other C-level (CTO, COO) | 2 | $180,000 | $360,000 |
| Senior Engineers | 4 | $160,000 | $640,000 |
| Engineers | 3 | $130,000 | $390,000 |
| Product Designer | 1 | $120,000 | $120,000 |
| Product Manager | 1 | $140,000 | $140,000 |
| Compliance/Legal Officer | 1 | $150,000 | $150,000 |
| Customer Support Lead | 1 | $80,000 | $80,000 |
| Marketing/Growth | 1 | $110,000 | $110,000 |
Total Base Salaries: $2,040,000 (vs $2,170,000 standard)
Savings: $130,000/year from founder salary structure
🎁 Amazing Employee Perks (Because We Can Afford It)
Standard Perks for ALL Employees
- Home office setup: $3,000 one-time stipend (desk, chair, monitor, etc.)
- Monthly home office allowance: $300/month (internet, electricity, equipment)
- Coworking membership: $450/month at any WeWork/coWorld globally
- Health insurance: Premium international coverage = $800/month per employee
- Mental health: Unlimited therapy sessions (BetterHelp) = $100/month
- Fitness & wellness: $150/month (gym, classes, equipment, nutrition)
- Learning & development: $3,000/year (courses, conferences, books)
- Annual retreat: Full team meets somewhere amazing = $5,000/person/year
- Travel stipend: $3,000/year to work from anywhere (Airbnb model)
- Equipment refresh: New laptop every 2 years = $1,500/year amortized
Premium Perks
- Unlimited PTO: Trust-based, minimum 4 weeks required
- Parental leave: 6 months paid (any parent, any child)
- Sabbatical program: 3 months paid after 5 years
- DoorDash/UberEats credit: $200/month for food delivery
- Amazon Prime Business: Free for all employees
- Audible/Kindle Unlimited: Free subscriptions
- Premium software licenses: Whatever you need (Adobe, JetBrains, etc.)
- 401(k) match: 6% employer match (US employees)
- Equity ownership: Generous stock option pool (20% reserved for team)
Annual Perks Cost Breakdown (15 employees)
| Perk | Per Employee | Total (15 people) |
|---|---|---|
| Home office setup (Year 1) | $3,000 | $45,000 |
| Monthly home office allowance | $3,600/year | $54,000 |
| Coworking membership | $5,400/year | $81,000 |
| Health insurance | $9,600/year | $144,000 |
| Mental health | $1,200/year | $18,000 |
| Fitness & wellness | $1,800/year | $27,000 |
| Learning & development | $3,000/year | $45,000 |
| Annual retreat | $5,000/year | $75,000 |
| Travel stipend | $3,000/year | $45,000 |
| Equipment refresh | $1,500/year | $22,500 |
| Food delivery credit | $2,400/year | $36,000 |
| Software & subscriptions | $600/year | $9,000 |
| Employer taxes (est. 15%) | — | $325,500 |
| 401(k) match (6% of salary) | — | $130,200 |
Founder CEO Relocation & Living (Curacao) — Local-First Approach
Local vendors prioritized wherever possible: Local property owners, Curacao car dealers, neighborhood restaurants, small service providers.
| Expense | Year 1 | Ongoing | Local Vendor Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive 2BR housing | $48,000 | $48,000/year | Local landlord/property owner |
| Relocation (couple) | $40,000 | — | Local moving company, not int'l chain |
| Work permits (2 people) | $6,000 | — | Local immigration consultant |
| Living expenses | $15,000 | $15,000/year | Local restaurants, markets, services |
| Car lease/insurance | $12,000 | $12,000/year | Local Curacao dealership |
| Utilities/services | $3,000 | $3,000/year | Local utility providers |
| US travel (quarterly) | $8,000 | $8,000/year | Local Curacao travel agent preferred |
Founder CEO Total: Year 1: $132,000, Ongoing: $86,000/year
Why Local-First Matters for CEO Living Expenses
- Network building: Your local landlord knows the mayor's office
- Word of mouth: "That American CEO uses my restaurant" = street credibility
- Regulatory perception: CGA sees you investing in community, not extracting
- Real relationships: Small island = everyone knows everyone
- Better service: Local businesses bend over backwards for regulars
Example: Your local landlord's cousin works at CGA. Your mechanic's brother is a customs officer. Your favorite restaurant owner's nephew is in immigration. This is how Curacao works.
Total Base Salaries: $2,040,000
Total Perks & Benefits (all employees): $1,057,200
Founder CEO Relocation/Living: $132,000 (Year 1), $86,000 (ongoing)
Total Team Compensation (Year 1): $3,229,200
Total Team Compensation (Ongoing): $3,183,200/year
Why this matters: At $30M Year 1 revenue, we can afford $3.2M in team costs (10.8% of revenue) while maintaining 83.3% EBITDA margin. The founder CEO structure saves $130k/year in fixed costs while providing maximum regulatory speed and comfortable living for 2 people in Curacao.
Marketing & User Acquisition
Customer acquisition cost (CAC) strategy
Year 1 Growth Strategy
Target: Grow from 0 to 5,000 active users
Marketing Budget Breakdown
- Paid social (Twitter, Reddit, TikTok): $30,000/month = $360,000/year
- Influencer partnerships: $20,000/month = $240,000/year
- Crypto community sponsorships: $10,000/month = $120,000/year
- SEO & content creation: $8,000/month = $96,000/year
- Referral bonuses (user-to-user): $100,000/year
- Affiliate program commissions: $80,000/year
- PR & media relations: $5,000/month = $60,000/year
- Event sponsorships (crypto/trading): $50,000/year
Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)
Total marketing spend: $1,106,000
Target users acquired: 5,000
CAC: $221 per user
Year 1 ARPU: $6,000 ($500/month × 12)
LTV/CAC ratio: 27:1 (exceptional)
Total Marketing (Year 1): $1,106,000
Customer Support
24/7 support for global crypto markets
Support Infrastructure (Lean Launch)
- Support platform (Zendesk): $400/month = $4,800/year
- Live chat software (Intercom): $600/month = $7,200/year
- Support contractors (3 part-time, rotating): $18,000/year
- Knowledge base software: $200/month = $2,400/year
Total Customer Support (Year 1): $32,400
VIP Loyalty Program (Ethical Retention)
Slot fee rebate for high-volume users
How It Works
Mechanism: Bet $500+ per slot in a month? Get your slot fees back as platform credit.
- User pays $30/month for 6 slots
- If they bet $500+ per slot (across all 6 slots) in the month
- They receive $30 platform credit on 1st of next month
- Platform credit only — use on future predictions, no cash value
Year 1 Cost Analysis (5,000 Users)
| Metric | Value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Total users | 5,000 | — |
| High-volume users (qualify) | 1,500 (30%) | $500/slot = $3,000/month wagered |
| Monthly slot fees collected | $45,000 | 1,500 × $30 |
| Platform credits issued | $45,000/month | Same as fees collected |
| Credits re-bet (house edge recapture) | $2,250/month | $45,000 × 5% edge |
| Net monthly cost | $42,750 | $45,000 - $2,250 |
| Annual cost | $513,000 | $42,750 × 12 |
Return on Investment
Cost: $513,000/year to rebate high-volume users
Benefit: Reduced churn of most valuable users
The Math
- Without rebate: High-volume users churn at 40%/year
- With rebate: High-volume users churn at 25%/year
- Retention improvement: 15 percentage points
- Users retained: 225 additional users (1,500 × 15%)
- Annual revenue per high-volume user: $6,000
- Revenue saved: 225 × $6,000 = $1,350,000
- Net benefit: $1,350,000 - $513,000 = $837,000 profit
- ROI: 163% (every $1 spent returns $2.63)
Ethical Guardrails
✅ Why This Is Ethical
- Honest incentive: Volume discount, not false odds
- Transparent: "Platform credit only" clearly stated
- Reasonable threshold: $500/slot/month = $100/week (not predatory)
- Capped benefit: Only rebates actual slot fees paid ($30 max)
- Aligns with transparency: We already disclose house edge upfront
- Industry standard: Casinos do comps, sportsbooks do loss-backs
⚠️ Responsible Gaming Protections
- Don't show rebate progress during active loss streaks
- Exclude users who've set deposit limits or self-exclusion
- No "You're $50 away from rebate!" push notifications
- Link to responsible gaming tools in all rebate communications
- Monitor for problem gambling patterns, pause rebates if detected
Implementation Example
VIP Loyalty Program
Bet $500+ per slot in a calendar month? Get your $30 slot fee back as platform credit.
- ✓ Platform credit (use on future predictions)
- ✓ Credited on 1st of next month
- ✓ No cash value, no withdrawal
- ✓ Automatically applied to your account
This is our way of saying thanks to active users.
Total Loyalty Program Cost (Year 1): $513,000 (163% ROI from retention)
Year 1 Total Expenses Summary (Lean Launch: 6 People)
| Category | Lean Launch (6) | Full Team (15) | Savings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Compensation & Perks | $1,312,000 | $3,229,000 | $1,917,000 |
| Marketing & User Acquisition | $1,106,000 | $1,106,000 | — |
| Legal & Compliance | $562,100 | $562,100 | — |
| Infrastructure & Technology | $196,200 | $196,200 | — |
| Customer Support | $32,400 | $164,400 | $132,000 |
| VIP Loyalty Program | $513,000 | $513,000 | — |
| Operations & Workspace | $80,200 | $80,200 | — |
| Payment Processing | $35,000 | $35,000 | — |
| TOTAL EXPENSES | $3,836,900 | $5,888,100 | $2,051,200 |
| Revenue (Year 1, 5,000 users) | $30,000,000 | $30,000,000 | — |
| Loyalty ROI benefit | +$837,000 | +$837,000 | — |
| EBITDA (before loyalty ROI) | $26,163,100 | $24,111,900 | +$2,051,200 |
| EBITDA (after loyalty ROI) | $27,000,100 | $24,948,900 | +$2,051,200 |
| EBITDA Margin | 90.0% | 83.2% | +6.8 points |
Key insight: Lean launch (6 people) + VIP loyalty + enhanced regulatory compliance = $2M+ savings Year 1. Regulatory costs ($562k) include professional consulting/advisory for smooth Curacao licensing. Loyalty program costs $513k but returns $837k through reduced churn (163% ROI).
Why These Margins Work
- Digital-first: No physical locations = minimal overhead
- High gross margins: House edge is nearly pure profit (no COGS)
- Scalable infrastructure: Cloud costs grow linearly, revenue grows exponentially
- Lean team: 15 people supporting $30M revenue = $2M revenue per employee
- Employee-owned: No VC dividends, no board expenses, no exit pressure
Result: We can afford AMAZING perks while maintaining 83% EBITDA margin in Year 1, improving to 50% by Year 5 as we reinvest in growth.
Financial Projections
5-Year Revenue Growth
Conservative 5-Year Model
| Year | Active Users | ARPU/Month | Annual Revenue | EBITDA Margin | EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5,000 | $500 | $30M | 17% | $5.1M |
| Year 2 | 50,000 | $750 | $450M | 30% | $135M |
| Year 3 | 200,000 | $1,000 | $2.4B | 40% | $960M |
| Year 4 | 500,000 | $1,200 | $7.2B | 45% | $3.24B |
| Year 5 | 1,000,000 | $1,500 | $18B | 50% | $9B |
Revenue Mix Evolution
Year 1
- Prediction edge: 70%
- Slot sales: 20%
- Fees: 10%
Year 3
- Prediction edge: 75%
- Parlays: 15%
- Fees: 7%
- Subscriptions: 3%
Year 5
- Prediction edge: 70%
- Parlays: 20%
- Subscriptions: 6%
- Fees: 4%
Why This Revenue Model Works
Diversified Streams
7 revenue sources = resilient to changes in any single area. Not dependent on house edge alone.
Recurring Revenue
Predictions happen continuously (6 times/hour). VIP subscriptions provide predictable income.
High Margins
Parlays: 28-37% edge. Digital delivery = low marginal costs. Blockchain cheaper than traditional rails.
Network Effects
More users = more liquidity = better experience. Copy trading incentivizes bringing friends.